Rays vs. Cubs: Ahead of the Rays vs. Cubs three-game series at Wrigley Field, we dig into Shane Baz’s form, matchup stats, Cubs strengths, playoff implications, and betting angles. Can Tampa Bay upset Chicago in this key interleague showdown?
Background Context
The 2025 MLB regular season is entering its final stretch, and every game matters—especially for teams on the bubble. The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs are facing off in an interleague series at Wrigley Field that has serious implications: for the Rays, a chance to dig out and stay in the wild card race; for the Cubs, an opportunity to solidify their postseason position.
Shane Baz is one of the key players to watch. After recovering from earlier injury setbacks, Baz has shown moments of dominance for the Rays but also inconsistency. On the Cubs’ side, Matthew Boyd has been steady, and their offense has been led by players like Kyle Tucker, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Meanwhile, the Rays are trying to generate offense despite recent cold streaks and make their pitching count.
Preview: Rays vs Cubs Series
Teams’ Current Status
- Rays: Record around 72-74, hovering just below .500, narrowly in or out of contention depending on remaining games. They’ve had a slide, having lost 5 of their last 6 games.
- Cubs: Stronger position with an 83-63 record. They’re holding on to a wild card spot in the National League and trying to ensure no late collapse.
Matchup Schedule & Probables
- Game 1: Rays start Shane Baz vs. Cubs’ Matthew Boyd.
- Game 2: Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs Colin Rea (CHC)
- Game 3: Adrian Houser (TB) vs. Shota Imanaga (CHC)
Key Players to Watch
- Shane Baz (Rays, SP)
- Season record: ~9-11
- ERA: ~4.94
- WHIP: ~1.33
- Strikeouts: 164 so far in 2025
- Notably, Baz has shown strong performances post-All Star break, including stretches where he limited opponents well.
- Matthew Boyd (Cubs, SP)
- Record: ~12-8; ERA: ~2.92; WHIP ~1.06
- He’s had some of his best outings at home, and metrics like xERA etc. suggest he’s been reliable.
- Cubs Offense
- Kyle Tucker is among top bats for Chicago, both power and consistency.
- Emerging contributions from Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner.
- Rays Offense & Others
- Chandler Simpson had a 4-for-4 game recently, showing some spark.
- Junior Caminero (home runs), speed (stolen bases, etc.) are among their strengths.
[Note: Images are collected from Instagram]
Shane Baz: Deep Dive
To understand what’s at stake in the Rays vs Cubs matchup, Baz’s recent form is essential.
- Performance splits: Post-All Star break, Baz has had some of his better outings. For example, in certain home starts he has posted an ERA significantly lower than his season average.
- vs left-handed vs right-handed batters: He has done well (very well in some stretches) vs lefties.
- Consistency concerns: Some starts earlier in the season were marred by high run support needed, walks, or early damage. His 4.94 ERA reflects that ups & downs.
In a high-leverage, late-season interleague road start at Wrigley, Baz will need to minimize walks, limit hard contact, and work deep enough to keep the bullpen fresh—especially since Rays are on the edge of contention and can’t afford too many bullpen collapses or starter shortfalls.
Matchup Prediction & What May Decide the Series
What factors will likely tilt this series?
| Factor | Advantage / Impact |
|---|---|
| Starting pitching | Boyd has edge in terms of consistency; Baz has upside but also risk. |
| Offense at home | Cubs lineup tends to do better at Wrigley; Rays have had sparks but not yet consistent. |
| Bullpen depth | Important down stretch; Cubs appear more stable right now. |
| Momentum & playoff pressure | Rays are fighting, but recent skid hurts morale. Cubs have incentive to lock up wild card or improve seeding. |
Given all that, Game 1 likely favors the Cubs. Predicted score: tight but Cubs take it (e.g. 4-2 or 5-3). Over the full series, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chicago win 2 out of 3 games. Rays will likely win if Baz has one of his strong outings and their offense heats up, especially with speed and small ball.
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions https://t.co/IGYLfBR0PW pic.twitter.com/pj0VwQV6n1
— SportsBookWire (@SportsBookWire) September 12, 2025
Odds, Betting & Value Picks
- Moneyline: Cubs favored, Rays underdogs.
- Run line & totals: Under 7.5 runs is a popular pick for Game 1 given Boyd and Baz both have lower scoring games.
- Props: Strikeout counts for both starters could be interesting bets; Boyd has been able to pile up Ks, and Baz has swing-and-miss stuff if he’s sharp.
Rays vs Cubs: Player Stats Snapshot (Season & Recent Trends)
| Category | Rays (2025) | Cubs (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | ~72-74 (just under .500) | ~83-63 |
| Shane Baz record / ERA / WHIP | 9-11, ~4.94 ERA, ~1.33 WHIP, ~164 Ks | NA |
| Matthew Boyd record / ERA / WHIP | NA | 12-8, ~2.92 ERA, ~1.06 WHIP |
| Key bats | Junior Caminero (power), Chandler Simpson (speed / recent hot streak) | Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner etc. |
| Bullpen strength | Mixed; Rays need more consistency in late innings. | Stronger; Cubs bullpen has held its own down stretch. |