Tulsa upsets Oklahoma State 19-12, snapping 10 straight losses vs OSU. Baylor Hayes leads, Dominic Richardson dominates, Zane Flores struggles. Full recap, prediction & what’s ahead.
Background & context: OSU vs Tulsa
The rivalry between Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Oklahoma State Cowboys is long-standing: the Bank of Oklahoma Turnpike Classic has been played off and on since 1914. OSU leads the all-time series, but Tulsa has been chasing a breakthrough in recent decades.
Coming into the 2025 game:
- Oklahoma State (OSU) had endured a rough start: after a manageable win over UT-Martin, they suffered a devastating loss to Oregon (69-3) in their second game. Expectations were low, but still they were favorites over Tulsa.
- Tulsa, under first-year head coach Tre Lamb, was looking to reassert itself. With quarterback issues (Kirk Francis sidelined with a concussion), Tulsa turned to redshirt freshman Baylor Hayes. Running back Dominic Richardson, a former OSU player, was expected to carry a heavy load.
The prediction markets generally favored OSU, often by double digits. Tulsa was seen as a potential upset threat but few expected the Golden Hurricane to pull it off at Stillwater. (CBSSports.com)
Game summary: Tulsa vs Oklahoma State (Final: Tulsa 19-12)
Key moments & performance
- Dominic Richardson handed OSU a dose of its own medicine: 31 carries, 146 rushing yards, dominating the ground game. He was critical to Tulsa controlling clock & momentum.
- Baylor Hayes, stepping in at QB, was efficient: 23-of-36 passing for 219 yards, a touchdown, and no turnovers. That steadiness in the face of OSU pressure mattered.
- Seth Morgan, Tulsa’s kicker, knocked in four field goals, including a 47-yard kick in the second quarter that helped build and sustain Tulsa’s lead.
- OSU’s offense, led by Zane Flores, showed flashes but couldn’t close the gap. Flores threw for 218 yards and scored a rushing touchdown but overall was held in check by Tulsa’s defense.
- OSU’s failed 2-point conversion in the fourth quarter loomed large. That attempt to pull within one possession could have changed dynamics.
- Tulsa’s defense made several big plays, including fourth-down stops and pressure sacks. Linebacker Ray Coney and others delivered when it counted.
Final score & statistics
- Score: Tulsa 19, OSU 12.
- Tulsa’s record becomes 2-2, OSU falls to 1-2.
- Tulsa racked up ~424 total yards, controlled time of possession (~35 minutes). (theamerican.org)
What this win means for Tulsa football
- It breaks a losing streak vs Oklahoma State including 10 straight losses in the series. First win in Stillwater since 1951. Big for the program’s morale. (theamerican.org)
- Validates Tre Lamb’s “rivalry cred” claim — that Tulsa can compete with teams like OSU and others in the region.
- Showcases depth and resilience: replacing a starting QB, relying on the running game, special teams, and defensive stops — all elements Tulsa needed to win.
- Gives momentum for the rest of Tulsa’s football schedule, especially in American Athletic Conference play.
Tulsa’s Team. #ReignCane pic.twitter.com/0pq5ZXqMMM
— Tulsa Football (@TulsaFootball) September 20, 2025
What this means (and hurts) for Oklahoma State football
- The loss is brutal for OSU: a home defeat, to a rival, after already being questioned following Oregon. Raises questions about the offense’s consistency, coaching adjustments, and execution. (Underdog Dynasty)
- Zane Flores, still the young QB, shows promise but also struggle: yardage is there, but turnovers, inability to finish drives, and inability to adjust under pressure show up. (News On 6)
- Coach continuity under Mike Gundy is under scrutiny. Fans, pundits are asking if OSU can pull out of a slump. Recent losses and poor performances magnify pressure.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State predictions — what analysts said beforehand
Before kickoff:
- Many predictions favored OSU by around 10 to 14 points. The Cowboys were generally expected to bounce back.
- Betting markets had Oklahoma State as the favorite; over/under totals in the 54-55 point range.
- Some analysts noted Tulsa’s threat: strong running game via Dominic Richardson, Baylor Hayes stepping in nicely, defensive potential. But most still saw OSU’s home field and recent dominance as decisive.
[Note: Images are collected from Instagram]
Prediction vs reality: where the game diverged
- Run game dominance by Tulsa was underestimated. Most had OSU as a favorite to control time of possession and ground attack; Tulsa did that instead.
- Quarterback impact: Baylor Hayes’ clean performance made a big difference. OSU’s Flores couldn’t overcome Tulsa’s defense.
- Special teams played a big role: Tulsa’s kicker Seth Morgan making multiple long field goals. Those were the margin. Analysts who pegged the spread to favor OSU underestimated special teams.
- Defensive stops in critical moments—fourth-downs, turnovers—give Tulsa the edge, showed discipline and poise.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State prediction after the result (for upcoming meetings)
Now that we know how the game went, here’s how future matchups might be predicted, given this result:
- Tulsa has demonstrated it can win on the road and under pressure. Future predictions should give them more respect.
- OSU will need more balanced offense, fewer turnovers, better QB protection, and better in-game adjustments for next time.
- Betting lines likely adjust: Tulsa may no longer be heavy underdogs in similar matchups with OSU; expectations will shift.
Player spotlights
- Dominic Richardson (Tulsa): Former OSU back turned tormentor; rushes for 146 on 31 carries vs his former team. Big, physical, consistent.
- Baylor Hayes (Tulsa): Shows maturity for a freshman or early-career QB, avoiding turnovers and managing game well.
- Ray Coney (Tulsa linebacker): Key defensive leader: high tackle counts, ability to create stops.
- Zane Flores (OSU): Some bright spots but couldn’t convert when it mattered. Learning curve continues.
Tulsa Football Schedule & OSU Football Schedule — What’s next
- Tulsa: After this big win, they’ll resume the rest of their American Athletic Conference schedule. The confidence boost could lead to more upsets or sharper performances in conference.
- Oklahoma State: Next games are crucial. They need to rebuild momentum before Big 12 matchups intensify. Their schedule includes facing Baylor next, a challenging opponent.
Predictions going in vs what happened
Before, experts predicted OSU to win; some leaned to Tulsa staying within the spread. After the result, it’s clear Tulsa overperformed relative to most predictions, by executing in multiple phases: run offense, special teams, defense. OSU underperformed. Going forward, predictions will take this outcome into account, making Tulsa a more dangerous team in similar contexts.
Wider implications
- Tulsa’s win may shift perceptions around mid-tier Power conference matchups and the ability of non-Big 12 schools to compete.
- Recruitment: dominating former-team players (like Richardson) in big games helps in states like Oklahoma.
- Fan morale & program visibility for Tulsa gets a major bump. For OSU, stakes increase: the program needs both donwfield recruiting and performance improvements to avoid deeper seasons of inconsistency.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State — what to watch (for rematches or future games)
- Will Tulsa continue to rely on their rushing dominance with Richardson, or will they evolve their passing game more?
- Can OSU shore up its offense to become more balanced? Protect the QB, improve third-down conversion.
- Special teams and field goal reliability may continue to swing outcomes in close games.
- Coaching adjustments: how will OSU’s staff react to this loss? Game-planning, defensive fit, and tackling.
Conclusion
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State turned into much more than another rivalry game. Tulsa snapped decades of losing, delivered under pressure, and showcased both depth and execution. OSU, meanwhile, is forced to reckon with missed opportunities and systemic weaknesses.
For Tulsa, this is a program-defining moment under Tre Lamb. For OSU, a warning: favoritism and history don’t win games—today required performance. As the season moves forward, expectations shift: Tulsa may no longer be “just the underdog,” and OSU must respond or risk sliding further as Big 12 opposition looms.